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Overview:

• ISM reports below expectations last week, while NFP was flat
• Upcoming CPI data and Fed minutes this Wednesday
• Start of Banks earnings season this Friday
• Bearish: USD, AUD, NZD
• Bullish: GBP, EUR, CHF, Crypto, Bonds, China stocks
• Neutral: US stocks, Crude Oil Commodities
• Previously “bad news is good news”, now “bad news is bad news”.

News Last Week - PMI, NFP

The March ISM manufacturing and services PMIs show a decline in new orders, inventories, and employment. The manufacturing and services PMI reports both came in lower than expected, which is seen as bearish news.

Job openings fell 6%, and nonfarm quits have seen a general downward trend. The unemployment rate decreased to 3.5% in March, but nonfarm employment only grew by 236k, and wage growth decelerated to 4.2% y/y. The non-farm payrolls report was in line with expectations, meaning there wasn't much surprise.

The Fed's interpretation of these data points will dictate the forward path of monetary policy, which could stay tighter for longer than expected.